MeritValue

Sable Offshore Corp.

SOCdata completeness 100%4 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Sable Offshore Corp. earns about -23% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2025
Revenue——$01$01
Net income$4.27M2−$2.59M3−$93.7M4−$410.2M4
Operating cash flow−$2.01M5−$1.71M6−$70.1M7−$351.7M7
Capital expenditure——$08$417.6M8
Free cash flow (derived)——−$70.1M7−$769.3M7
Total debt——$09$921.6M10
Cash & equivalents$322,76811$100,25612$013$97.7M13
Diluted shares———98.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$54.42
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$41.78
Free cash flow it threw off
−$78.36
Debt you’d be carrying
$93.87

10 shares is a claim on $54.42 of net worth that earned you −$41.78 and generated −$78.36 of cash last year, against $93.87 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-23% avg · 4y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 -22%FY25 -23%

It earned an average -23% on invested capital over 4 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−0% shares · 4y

Share count is roughly flat over 4 years — little dilution, little buyback.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001831481-26-000026 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-088251 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-080879 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001831481-26-000026 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-088251 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-24-080879 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001831481-26-000026 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001831481-26-000026 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001831481-25-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001831481-26-000026 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001193125-22-095122 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001193125-23-088251 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001831481-26-000026 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)