MeritValue

TD SYNNEX CORP

SNXdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

TD SYNNEX CORP earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 31% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $81.88 and $774.47 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$31.6B1$62.3B2$57.6B3$58.5B3$62.5B3
Net income$395.1M4$651.3M5$626.9M6$689.1M6$827.7M6
Operating cash flow$809.8M7−$49.6M8$1.41B9$1.22B9$1.53B9
Capital expenditure$39.7M10$65.3M10$150M11$175.1M11$142.3M11
Free cash flow (derived)$770.1M7−$114.9M8$1.26B9$1.04B9$1.39B9
Total debt$181.3M12$536.3M13$1.97B14$342.2M15$2.04B15
Cash & equivalents$994M16$522.6M17$1.03B18$1.06B19$2.44B19
Diluted shares62.7M95.5M92.9M85.9M82.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,025.16
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$100.41
Free cash flow it threw off
$168.56
Debt you’d be carrying
$247.19

10 shares is a claim on $1,025.16 of net worth that earned you $100.41 and generated $168.56 of cash last year, against $247.19 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
8% avg · 5y
FY21 6%FY22 8%FY23 7%FY24 9%FY25 10%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+31% shares · 5y

Share count is up 31% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 1024% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $81.88 and $774.47 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$774.47
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth17.8%
  • fcfBase$1.26B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$460.59
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth17.8%
  • fcfBase$1.26B
Earnings Power Value
$81.88
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$651.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$151.5
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years17.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $460.59
The three cases
Bear0.0%$222.77
Base17.8%$460.59
Bull20.0%$502.15

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 17.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001177394-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001177394-25-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001628280-26-003598 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001177394-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001177394-25-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001628280-26-003598 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001177394-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001177394-25-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001628280-26-003598 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001177394-23-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001628280-26-003598 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001177394-23-000010 (DebtCurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001177394-24-000014 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001177394-25-000009 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0001628280-26-003598 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-11-30 · accession 0001177394-23-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-11-30 · accession 0001177394-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-11-30 · accession 0001177394-25-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-11-30 · accession 0001628280-26-003598 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)