Snowflake Inc.
SNOWdata completeness 88%8 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'
Snowflake Inc. earns about -80% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 12% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $96.63 and $169.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $1.22B1 | $2.07B2 | $2.81B3 | $3.63B3 | $4.68B3 |
| Net income | −$679.9M4 | −$796.7M5 | −$836.1M6 | −$1.29B6 | −$1.33B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $110.2M7 | $545.6M8 | $848.1M9 | $959.8M9 | $1.22B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $16.2M10 | $25.1M11 | $35.1M12 | $46.3M12 | $101.6M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $94M7 | $520.5M8 | $813M9 | $913.5M9 | $1.12B9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.09B13 | $939.9M14 | $1.76B15 | $2.63B15 | $2.83B15 |
| Diluted shares | 300.3M | 318.7M | 328.0M | 332.7M | 337.5M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $57.01 of net worth that earned you −$39.46 and generated $33.2 of cash last year.
It earned about -80% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 12% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $96.63 and $169.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$913.5M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth20.0%
- fcfBase$913.5M
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $47.05 |
| Base | 20.0% | $96.63 |
| Bull | 20.0% | $96.63 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001640147-24-000101 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001640147-25-000052 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001640147-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001640147-24-000101 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001640147-25-000052 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001640147-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001640147-24-000101 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001640147-25-000052 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001640147-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001640147-24-000101 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001640147-25-000052 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001640147-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-01-31 · accession 0001640147-24-000101 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-01-31 · accession 0001640147-25-000052 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-01-31 · accession 0001640147-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)