StoneX Group Inc.
SNEXdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on fileStoneX Group Inc. earns about 135% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 155% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $49.31 and $157.94 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.12B1 | $3.61B2 | $3.49B3 | $2.22B3 | $3.07B3 |
| Net income | $116.3M4 | $207.1M5 | $238.5M6 | $260.8M6 | $305.9M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $2.12B7 | −$229.5M8 | −$23.7M9 | $506.9M9 | $4.39B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $62.1M10 | $49.5M11 | $46.9M12 | $65.2M12 | $65.4M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $2.06B7 | −$279M8 | −$70.6M9 | $441.7M9 | $4.32B9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $1.11B13 | $1.11B14 | $1.11B15 | $1.27B15 | $1.61B15 |
| Diluted shares | 19.7M | 30.1M | 46.4M | 47.4M | 50.1M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $474.3 of net worth that earned you $61.03 and generated $862.43 of cash last year.
It earned about 135% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 155% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $49.31 and $157.94 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$441.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$441.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$238.5M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $157.94 |
| Base | 0.0% | $157.94 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $188.42 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000913760-23-000159 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000913760-24-000187 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000913760-25-000196 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000913760-23-000159 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000913760-24-000187 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000913760-25-000196 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000913760-23-000159 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000913760-24-000187 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000913760-25-000196 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000913760-23-000159 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000913760-24-000187 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000913760-25-000196 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000913760-23-000159 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000913760-24-000187 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000913760-25-000196 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)