Schneider National, Inc.
SNDRdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on fileSchneider National, Inc. earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $14.05 and $20.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $5.61B1 | $6.6B2 | $5.5B3 | $5.29B3 | $5.67B3 |
| Net income | $405.4M4 | $457.8M5 | $238.5M6 | $117M6 | $103.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $566.1M7 | $856.4M8 | $680M9 | $686.1M9 | $637.4M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $399.4M10 | $535.1M11 | $660.1M12 | $414M12 | $352M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $166.7M7 | $321.3M8 | $19.9M9 | $272.1M9 | $285.4M9 |
| Total debt | — | $205M13 | $290M14 | $515M15 | $397M15 |
| Cash & equivalents | $244.8M16 | $385.7M16 | $102.4M17 | $117.6M17 | $201.5M17 |
| Diluted shares | 178.1M | 178.8M | 178.2M | 176.1M | 175.9M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $171.96 of net worth that earned you $5.89 and generated $16.23 of cash last year, against $22.57 of debt.
It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 94% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $14.05 and $20.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$272.1M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$272.1M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$238.5M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $20.99 |
| Base | 0.0% | $20.99 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $26.34 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692063-24-000038 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692063-25-000023 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692063-26-000013 (Revenues)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692063-24-000038 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692063-25-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692063-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692063-24-000038 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692063-25-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692063-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692063-24-000038 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692063-25-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692063-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001692063-24-000038 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692063-25-000023 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001692063-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001692063-23-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001692063-26-000013 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)