MeritValue

Smart Sand, Inc.

SNDdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'interestExpense'

The thesis, from the filings

Smart Sand, Inc. earns about -5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 5% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.35 and $3.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$126.6M1$255.7M1$296M1$311.4M2$330.2M2
Net income−$50.7M3−$703,0004$4.65M5$2.99M5$1.35M5
Operating cash flow$32.4M6$5.42M7$31M8$17.9M8$44.1M8
Capital expenditure$11.2M9$12.7M10$23M11$7.01M11$11.6M11
Free cash flow (derived)$21.2M6−$7.31M7$7.96M8$10.9M8$32.5M8
Total debt$22.5M12$33.8M13$39.3M14$27.4M15$28M15
Cash & equivalents$25.6M16$5.51M17$6.07M18$1.55M19$22.6M19
Diluted shares41.8M42.4M39.0M39.1M39.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$60.55
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$0.34
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.21
Debt you’d be carrying
$7.08

10 shares is a claim on $60.55 of net worth that earned you $0.34 and generated $8.21 of cash last year, against $7.08 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 5y
FY21 -20%FY22 -1%FY23 -1%FY24 0%FY25 -2%

It earned about -5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−5% shares · 5y

Share count is down 5% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 25% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.35 and $3.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.48
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$10.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$10.9M
Earnings Power Value
$0.35
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.35M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$2.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.78
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.78
Base0.0%$3.78
Bull5.0%$4.73

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001529628-24-000060 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001529628-26-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001529628-24-000060 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001529628-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001529628-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001529628-24-000060 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001529628-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001529628-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001529628-24-000060 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001529628-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001529628-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001529628-23-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001529628-24-000060 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001529628-25-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001529628-26-000006 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001529628-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001529628-24-000060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001529628-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001529628-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)