MeritValue

Sleep Number Corp

SNBRQdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Sleep Number Corp earns about -226% on invested capital, and has bought back 8% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$2.18B1$2.11B2$1.89B3$1.68B3$1.41B3
Net income$153.7M4$36.6M5−$15.3M6−$20.3M6−$132M6
Operating cash flow$300M7$36.1M8−$9.03M9$27.1M9−$3.28M9
Capital expenditure$66.9M10$69.5M11$57.1M12$23.5M12$14.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$233.1M7−$33.3M8−$66.1M9$3.64M9−$17.7M9
Total debt$382.5M13$459.6M13$539.5M14$546.6M15$588.2M15
Cash & equivalents$2.39M16$1.79M17$2.54M18$1.95M19$1.69M19
Diluted shares24.9M22.9M22.4M22.6M22.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$252.8
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$57.67
Free cash flow it threw off
−$7.73
Debt you’d be carrying
$257.05

10 shares is a claim on −$252.8 of net worth that earned you −$57.67 and generated −$7.73 of cash last year, against $257.05 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-226% avg · 5y
FY22 —FY22 114%FY23 -52%FY24 -22%FY26 -944%

It earned an average -226% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−8% shares · 5y

Share count is down 8% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 54% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000827187-24-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000827187-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000827187-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000827187-24-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000827187-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000827187-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000827187-24-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000827187-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000827187-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000827187-24-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000827187-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000827187-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000827187-23-000019 (DebtCurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000827187-25-000018 (DebtCurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000827187-26-000014 (DebtCurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000827187-23-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000827187-24-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000827187-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000827187-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)