MeritValue

Snap Inc

SNAPdata completeness 100%11 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Snap Inc earns about -13% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 9% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $0.64 and $4.13 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.12B1$4.6B2$4.61B3$5.36B3$5.93B3
Net income−$488M4−$1.43B5−$1.32B6−$697.9M6−$460.5M6
Operating cash flow$292.9M7$184.6M8$246.5M9$413.5M9$656.2M9
Capital expenditure$69.9M10$129.3M11$211.7M12$194.8M12$219M12
Free cash flow (derived)$223M7$55.3M8$34.8M9$218.7M9$437.2M9
Total debt$2.25B13$3.74B14$3.75B15$7.29B16$7.07B16
Cash & equivalents$1.99B17$1.42B18$1.78B19$1.05B19$1.03B19
Diluted shares1.56B1.61B1.61B1.66B1.69B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$13.46
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$2.72
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.58
Debt you’d be carrying
$41.74

10 shares is a claim on $13.46 of net worth that earned you −$2.72 and generated $2.58 of cash last year, against $41.74 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-13% avg · 5y
FY21 -9%FY22 -22%FY23 -23%FY24 -6%FY25 -4%

It earned about -13% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+9% shares · 5y

Share count is up 9% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 214% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $0.64 and $4.13 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$4.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$218.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$0.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$218.7M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $0.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$1.72
Base20.0%$0.64
Bull20.0%$0.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564408-24-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001564408-25-000019 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001564408-26-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564408-24-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001564408-25-000019 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001564408-26-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564408-24-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001564408-25-000019 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001564408-26-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564408-24-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001564408-25-000019 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001564408-26-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564408-23-000013 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001564408-24-000019 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001564408-25-000019 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001564408-26-000013 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001564408-23-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001564408-25-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001564408-26-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)