MeritValue

Snap-on Inc

SNAdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Snap-on Inc earns about 18% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $197.69 and $391.76 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2026
Revenue$4.23B1$4.47B2$4.7B3$4.68B3$4.71B3
Net income$820.5M4$911.7M5$1.01B6$1.04B6$1.02B6
Operating cash flow$966.6M7$675.2M8$1.15B9$1.22B9$1.08B9
Capital expenditure$70.1M10$84.2M11$95M12$83.5M12$76M12
Free cash flow (derived)$896.5M7$591M8$1.06B9$1.13B9$1.01B9
Total debt$1.2B13$1.18B14$1.18B15$2.38B16$2.39B16
Cash & equivalents$780M17$757.2M18$1B19$1.36B20$1.62B20
Diluted shares55.0M54.2M53.9M53.5M53.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$1,119.21
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$191.87
Free cash flow it threw off
$189.75
Debt you’d be carrying
$450.75

10 shares is a claim on $1,119.21 of net worth that earned you $191.87 and generated $189.75 of cash last year, against $450.75 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
18% avg · 5y
FY22 19%FY22 20%FY23 20%FY24 17%FY26 16%

It earned about 18% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 99% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $197.69 and $391.76 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$391.76
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.7%
  • fcfBase$1.06B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$351.2
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.7%
  • fcfBase$1.06B
Earnings Power Value
$197.69
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.01B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$219.83
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.7%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $351.2
The three cases
Bear0.0%$271.11
Base5.7%$351.2
Bull10.7%$436

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.7%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000091440-23-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091440-24-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000091440-26-000045 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000091440-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091440-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000091440-26-000045 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000091440-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091440-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000091440-26-000045 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000091440-24-000005 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091440-25-000010 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000091440-26-000045 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000091440-23-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091440-24-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000091440-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000091440-26-000045 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-01 · accession 0000091440-23-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000091440-24-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-30 · accession 0000091440-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-28 · accession 0000091440-26-000045 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)