MeritValue

SIMILARWEB LTD.

SMWBdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

SIMILARWEB LTD. earns about -167% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 59% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $3.61 and $3.84 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$137.7M1$193.2M2$218M3$249.9M3$282.6M3
Net income−$69M4−$83.7M5−$29.4M6−$11.5M6−$32.9M6
Operating cash flow−$27.6M7−$46.1M8−$3.04M9$30.2M9$14.6M9
Capital expenditure$2.31M10$28.3M11$1.56M12$1.43M12$1.49M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$29.9M7−$74.3M8−$4.6M9$28.7M9$13.2M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$128.9M13$77.8M14$71.7M15$63.9M16$72.4M16
Diluted shares53.2M75.7M77.8M80.8M84.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$2.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$3.88
Free cash flow it threw off
$1.55
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $2.75 of net worth that earned you −$3.88 and generated $1.55 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-167% avg · 5y
FY21 -81%FY22 -381%FY23 -189%FY24 -42%FY25 -141%

It earned about -167% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+59% shares · 5y

Share count is up 59% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $3.61 and $3.84 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$3.84
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$13.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$3.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$13.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $3.61
The three cases
Bear0.0%$3.07
Base5.0%$3.61
Bull10.0%$4.25

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842731-24-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842731-25-000013 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842731-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842731-24-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842731-25-000013 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842731-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842731-24-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842731-25-000013 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842731-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842731-24-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842731-25-000013 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842731-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001842731-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001842731-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001842731-25-000013 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001842731-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)