MeritValue

SMITH MICRO SOFTWARE, INC.

SMSIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SMITH MICRO SOFTWARE, INC. earns about -69% on invested capital, and has bought back 60% of its shares over 5 years. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$58.4M1$48.5M2$40.9M3$20.6M4$17.4M4
Net income−$31M5−$29.3M6−$24.4M7−$48.7M8−$29.3M8
Operating cash flow−$12.9M9−$19.3M10−$6.97M11−$14.3M12−$7.19M12
Capital expenditure$830,00013$49,00014$4,00015$20,00016$88,00016
Free cash flow (derived)−$13.7M9−$19.3M10−$6.98M11−$14.3M12−$7.28M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$16.1M17$14M18$7.13M19$2.81M20$1.49M20
Diluted shares51.2M55.4M8.1M12.4M20.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$8.93
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$14.23
Free cash flow it threw off
−$3.53
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $8.93 of net worth that earned you −$14.23 and generated −$3.53 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-69% avg · 5y
FY21 -29%FY22 -40%FY23 -35%FY24 -101%FY25 -137%

It earned an average -69% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−60% shares · 5y

Share count is down 60% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000948708-23-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000948708-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000948708-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007087 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000948708-23-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000948708-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000948708-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007087 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000948708-23-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000948708-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000948708-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007087 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000948708-23-000015 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000948708-24-000009 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000948708-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007087 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000948708-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000948708-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000948708-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007087 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)