MeritValue

Simply Good Foods Co

SMPLdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Simply Good Foods Co earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 4% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $11.08 and $62.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.01B1$1.17B2$1.24B3$1.33B3$1.45B3
Net income$40.9M4$108.6M5$133.6M6$139.3M6$103.6M6
Operating cash flow$132.1M7$110.6M8$171.1M9$215.7M9$178.5M9
Capital expenditure$5.91M10$5.23M11$11.6M12$5.74M12$20.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$126.2M7$105.4M8$159.5M9$210M9$157.9M9
Total debt$903.1M13$806.6M14$563.6M15$795M16$249.1M16
Cash & equivalents$75.3M17$67.5M18$87.7M19$132.5M20$98.5M20
Diluted shares97.4M100.6M100.9M101.3M101.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$177.99
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.21
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.56
Debt you’d be carrying
$24.54

10 shares is a claim on $177.99 of net worth that earned you $10.21 and generated $15.56 of cash last year, against $24.54 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 3%FY22 6%FY23 8%FY24 6%FY25 5%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+4% shares · 5y

Share count is up 4% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 72% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $11.08 and $62.12 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$62.12
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth14.8%
  • fcfBase$159.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$40.32
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth14.8%
  • fcfBase$159.5M
Earnings Power Value
$11.08
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$108.6M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$20.21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years14.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $40.32
The three cases
Bear0.0%$20.97
Base14.8%$40.32
Bull19.8%$49.39

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 14.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001702744-23-000098 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0001702744-24-000089 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0001702744-25-000046 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001702744-23-000098 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0001702744-24-000089 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0001702744-25-000046 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001702744-23-000098 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0001702744-24-000089 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0001702744-25-000046 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001702744-23-000098 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0001702744-24-000089 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0001702744-25-000046 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001702744-22-000073 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0001702744-23-000098 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0001702744-24-000089 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001702744-25-000046 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-08-28 · accession 0001702744-22-000073 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-08-27 · accession 0001702744-23-000098 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-08-26 · accession 0001702744-24-000089 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-08-31 · accession 0001702744-25-000046 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)