MeritValue

STANDARD MOTOR PRODUCTS, INC.

SMPdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

STANDARD MOTOR PRODUCTS, INC. earns about 7% on invested capital, with a roughly flat share count. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $19.05 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.3B1$1.37B2$1.36B3$1.46B3$1.79B3
Net income$90.9M4$55.4M5$34.1M6$27.5M6$41.3M6
Operating cash flow$85.6M7−$27.5M8$144.3M9$76.7M9$57.4M9
Capital expenditure$25.9M10$26M11$28.6M12$44M12$38.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$59.7M7−$53.5M8$115.6M9$32.7M9$18.7M9
Total debt$256.9M13$479.2M14$312.4M15$1.12B16$1.24B16
Cash & equivalents$21.8M17$21.2M18$32.5M19$44.4M19—
Diluted shares22.6M22.1M22.2M22.2M22.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$304.09
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.38
Free cash flow it threw off
$8.32
Debt you’d be carrying
$550.37

10 shares is a claim on $304.09 of net worth that earned you $18.38 and generated $8.32 of cash last year, against $550.37 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
7% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 8%FY23 8%FY24 3%FY25 4%

It earned an average 7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 382% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$32.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$32.7M
Earnings Power Value
$19.05
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$41.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$35.48
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-008994 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093389-25-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000093389-26-000012 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-008994 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093389-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000093389-26-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-008994 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093389-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000093389-26-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-008994 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000093389-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000093389-26-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-007960 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-008994 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000093389-25-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000093389-26-000012 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001140361-23-007960 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001140361-24-008994 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000093389-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)