MeritValue

SMITH MIDLAND CORP

SMIDdata completeness 88%15 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

SMITH MIDLAND CORP earns about 21% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 101295% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.02 and $14.79 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$50.6M1$50.1M2$59.6M3$78.5M4$93.4M4
Net income$7.57M5$800,0006$795,0007$7.68M8$12.5M8
Operating cash flow$9.13M9−$6.33M10$7.73M11$5.16M12$14.3M12
Capital expenditure$5.37M13$2.75M14$5.01M15$6.2M16$9.34M16
Free cash flow (derived)$3.76M9−$9.08M10$2.72M11−$1.05M12$4.96M12
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$13.5M17$6.73M18$9.18M19$7.55M19$11.9M19
Diluted shares5,2325.3M5.3M5.3M5.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$102.36
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$23.57
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.36
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $102.36 of net worth that earned you $23.57 and generated $9.36 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
21% avg · 5y
FY21 42%FY22 4%FY23 4%FY24 23%FY25 30%

It earned about 21% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+101295% shares · 5y

Share count is up 101295% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.02 and $14.79 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$9.02
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.72M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$9.57
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$2.72M
Earnings Power Value
$14.79
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$7.57M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$23.31
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $9.57
The three cases
Bear0.0%$9.57
Base0.0%$9.57
Bull5.0%$11.35

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004852 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-006855 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-006144 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-003505 (Revenues)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004852 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-006855 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-006144 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-003505 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004852 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-006855 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-006144 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-003505 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-23-004852 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-006855 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-006144 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-003505 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001654954-24-006855 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001654954-25-006144 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001654954-26-003505 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)