MeritValue

SCOTTS MIRACLE-GRO CO

SMGdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SCOTTS MIRACLE-GRO CO earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 3% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $172.26 and $374.1 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.93B1$3.92B2$3.55B3$3.55B3$3.41B3
Net income$512.5M4−$437.5M5−$380.1M6−$34.9M6$145.2M6
Operating cash flow$271.5M7−$129M8$531M9$667.5M9$371.3M9
Capital expenditure$106.9M10$113.5M11$92.8M12$84M12$97.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$164.6M7−$242.5M8$438.2M9$583.5M9$273.9M9
Total debt$4.58B13$5.93B14$5.22B15$4.45B16$4.21B16
Cash & equivalents$244.1M17$86.8M18$31.9M19$71.6M20$36.6M20
Diluted shares57.2M55.5M56.0M56.8M58.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$60.9
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.74
Free cash flow it threw off
$46.66
Debt you’d be carrying
$717.48

10 shares is a claim on −$60.9 of net worth that earned you $24.74 and generated $46.66 of cash last year, against $717.48 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 -6%FY23 -4%FY24 3%FY25 6%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+3% shares · 5y

Share count is up 3% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $172.26 and $374.1 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$374.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$438.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$172.26
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$438.2M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
book value / share count missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $172.26
The three cases
Bear0.0%$35.53
Base20.0%$172.26
Bull20.0%$172.26

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001546380-23-000037 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001546380-24-000043 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000825542-25-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001546380-23-000037 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001546380-24-000043 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000825542-25-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001546380-23-000037 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001546380-24-000043 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000825542-25-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001546380-23-000037 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001546380-24-000043 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000825542-25-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001546380-22-000035 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001546380-23-000037 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001546380-24-000043 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000825542-25-000022 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0001546380-22-000035 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0001546380-23-000037 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001546380-24-000043 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0000825542-25-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)