MeritValue

Super Micro Computer, Inc.

SMCIdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'investmentsAtFairValue'; no data for concept 'netInvestmentIncome'; no data for concept 'gainsOnRealEstateSales'; no data for concept 'realEstateImpairment'; no data for concept 'dividendsPaid'

The thesis, from the filings

Super Micro Computer, Inc. earns about 41% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 30% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $15.12 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$5.2B1$7.12B2$15B3$22B3$39.1B3
Net income$285.2M4$640M5$1.15B6$1.05B6$2.23B6
Operating cash flow−$440.8M7$663.6M8−$2.49B9$1.66B9−$6.81B9
Capital expenditure$45.2M10$36.8M11$124.3M12$127.2M12$162M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$486M7$626.8M8−$2.61B9$1.53B9−$6.97B9
Total debt$744.4M13$410.5M13———
Cash & equivalents$267.4M14$440.5M15$1.67B16$5.17B17$7.52B17
Diluted shares536.2M559.7M602.1M628.4M697.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$207.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$31.98
Free cash flow it threw off
−$99.98
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $207.64 of net worth that earned you $31.98 and generated −$99.98 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
41% avg · 5y
FY22 15%FY23 34%FY24 31%FY25 93%FY26 32%

It earned an average 41% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+30% shares · 5y

Share count is up 30% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 45% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.5.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
$15.12
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate5.0%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.05B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$40.21
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001375365-26-000022 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001375365-26-000022 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001375365-26-000022 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001375365-26-000022 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001375365-23-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001375365-23-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2025-06-30 · accession 0001375365-26-000022 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)