Super Micro Computer, Inc.
SMCIdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on fileSuper Micro Computer, Inc. earns about 37% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 1074% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $10.55 and $27.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.56B1 | $5.2B2 | $7.12B3 | $15B3 | $22B3 |
| Net income | $111.9M4 | $285.2M5 | $640M6 | $1.15B6 | $1.05B6 |
| Operating cash flow | $123M7 | −$440.8M8 | $663.6M9 | −$2.49B9 | $1.66B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $58M10 | $45.2M11 | $36.8M12 | $124.3M12 | $127.2M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $64.9M7 | −$486M8 | $626.8M9 | −$2.61B9 | $1.53B9 |
| Total debt | $132.9M13 | $744.4M14 | $410.5M14 | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $232.3M15 | $267.4M16 | $440.5M17 | $1.67B18 | $5.17B18 |
| Diluted shares | 53.5M | 536.2M | 559.7M | 602.1M | 628.4M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $100.28 of net worth that earned you $16.69 and generated $24.38 of cash last year.
It earned about 37% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 1074% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 209% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.55 and $27.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$626.8M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$626.8M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$640M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $22.48 |
| Base | 5.0% | $25.93 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $30.05 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001375365-23-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000027 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001375365-23-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000027 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001375365-23-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000027 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001375365-23-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000027 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001375365-22-000103 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001375365-23-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001375365-22-000103 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001375365-23-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001375365-25-000027 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)