MeritValue

SMARTFINANCIAL INC.

SMBKdata completeness 75%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'

The thesis, from the filings

SMARTFINANCIAL INC. earns about 120% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 8% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $22.17 and $69.96 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income$34.8M1$43M2$28.6M2$36.1M2$50.3M3
Operating cash flow$46.2M4$56.8M5$39.7M6$52.7M6$61.7M6
Capital expenditure$2.38M7$12.5M8$6.27M9$6.41M9$2.39M9
Free cash flow (derived)$43.8M4$44.3M5$33.4M6$46.3M6$59.3M6
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$1.05B10$266.4M11$352.3M12$387.6M13$464.4M13
Diluted shares15.7M16.9M16.9M16.9M16.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$326.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$29.8
Free cash flow it threw off
$35.12
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $326.92 of net worth that earned you $29.8 and generated $35.12 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
120% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 36%FY23 91%FY24 140%FY25 212%

It earned about 120% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+8% shares · 5y

Share count is up 8% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $22.17 and $69.96 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$69.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth1.9%
  • fcfBase$46.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$69.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth1.9%
  • fcfBase$46.3M
Earnings Power Value
$22.17
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$36.1M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$46.82
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years1.9%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $69.96
The three cases
Bear0.0%$66.63
Base1.9%$69.96
Bull6.9%$80.09

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 1.9%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003429 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003135 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028542 (ProfitLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003429 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003135 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028542 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003429 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003135 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028542 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-004042 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-003429 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-003135 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-028542 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)