SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP, INC.

SMBCdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

SOUTHERN MISSOURI BANCORP, INC. earns about 33% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 25% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $43.52 and $146.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$109.5M1$116.9M2$176.4M3$248.4M3$277.4M3
Net income$47.2M4$47.2M5$39.2M6$50.2M6$58.6M6
Operating cash flow$51.8M7$67.3M8$62M9$70.3M9$81.6M9
Capital expenditure$2.86M10$4.62M11$6.04M12$9.05M12$6.26M12
Free cash flow (derived)$48.9M7$62.7M8$56M9$61.2M9$75.3M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$123.6M13$86.8M14$54M15$60.9M16$192.9M16
Diluted shares9.0M9.0M10.1M11.3M11.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$484.83
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$52.14
Free cash flow it threw off
$67.02
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $484.83 of net worth that earned you $52.14 and generated $67.02 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
33% avg · 5y
FY21 FY22 25%FY23 20%FY24 38%FY25 51%

It earned about 33% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+25% shares · 5y

Share count is up 25% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $43.52 and $146.62 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$146.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth7.8%
  • fcfBase$61.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$125.89
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth7.8%
  • fcfBase$61.2M
Earnings Power Value
$43.52
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$47.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$75.17
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years7.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $125.89
The three cases
Bear0.0%$95.02
Base7.8%$125.89
Bull12.8%$150.72

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 7.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015713 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012781 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-012001 (InterestAndDividendIncomeOperating)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015713 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012781 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-012001 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015713 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012781 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-012001 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015713 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012781 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-012001 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K/A · period ending 2021-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-004276 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-06-30 · accession 0001558370-23-015713 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-06-30 · accession 0001558370-24-012781 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-06-30 · accession 0001558370-25-012001 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)