MeritValue

SM Energy Co

SMdata completeness 75%18 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'capex'

The thesis, from the filings

SM Energy Co earns about 24% on invested capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $69.38 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.6B1$3.35B2$2.36B3$2.67B3$3.14B3
Net income$36.2M4$1.11B5$818M6$770M6$648M6
Operating cash flow$1.16B7$1.69B8$1.57B9$1.78B9$2.01B9
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt$2.08B10————
Cash & equivalents$332.7M11$445M12$616.2M13$014$368M14
Diluted shares123.7M124.1M119.0M116.0M115.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$418.26
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$56.35
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $418.26 of net worth that earned you $56.35 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
24% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 46%FY23 30%FY24 21%FY25 18%

It earned an average 24% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−7% shares · 5y

Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$69.38
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$770M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$72.85
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000893538-24-000009 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000893538-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000893538-26-000032 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000893538-24-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000893538-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000893538-26-000032 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000893538-24-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000893538-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000893538-26-000032 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000893538-22-000020 (LongTermDebt)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000893538-23-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000893538-24-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000893538-25-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0000893538-26-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)