Sylvamo Corp
SLVMdata completeness 100%7 fiscal years on fileSylvamo Corp earns about 165% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 7% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $64.42 and $89.81 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2.83B1 | $3.63B2 | $3.72B3 | $3.77B3 | $3.35B3 |
| Net income | $331M4 | $118M5 | $253M6 | $302M6 | $132M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $549M7 | $438M8 | $504M9 | $469M9 | $268M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $69M10 | $149M10 | $210M11 | $221M11 | $224M11 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $480M7 | $289M8 | $294M9 | $248M9 | $44M9 |
| Total debt | $19M12 | $29M13 | $28M14 | $22M15 | $23M15 |
| Cash & equivalents | $159M16 | $360M17 | $280M17 | $205M17 | $135M17 |
| Diluted shares | 44.0M | 44.4M | 42.7M | 42.0M | 40.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $237.35 of net worth that earned you $32.43 and generated $10.81 of cash last year, against $5.65 of debt.
It earned about 165% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 7% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 21% over the same window.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $64.42 and $89.81 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$248M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$248M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$253M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $89.81 |
| Base | 0.0% | $89.81 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $110.89 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001856485-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001856485-25-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001856485-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001856485-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001856485-25-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001856485-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001856485-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001856485-25-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001856485-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001856485-23-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001856485-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001856485-23-000007 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001856485-24-000008 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001856485-25-000008 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001856485-26-000008 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001856485-25-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001856485-26-000008 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)