MeritValue

Southland Holdings, Inc.

SLNDdata completeness 100%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Southland Holdings, Inc. earns about -18% on equity, but has diluted owners by 550% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.28B1$1.16B2$1.16B3$980.2M3$772.2M3
Net income$38.7M4$60.5M5−$19.3M6−$105.4M6−$306.5M6
Operating cash flow−$90.6M7−$66.2M8−$10.3M9$1.93M9$16.6M9
Capital expenditure$18.8M10$4.77M11$10.8M12$7.42M12$3.85M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$109.4M7−$71M8−$21.1M9−$5.49M9$12.7M9
Total debt—$547.2M13$600.7M14$600.3M15$515.4M15
Cash & equivalents$63.3M16$57.9M17$49.2M18$72.2M18$52.7M18
Diluted shares8.3M047.1M48.1M54.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
−$26.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$56.71
Free cash flow it threw off
$2.36
Debt you’d be carrying
$95.36

10 shares is a claim on −$26.07 of net worth that earned you −$56.71 and generated $2.36 of cash last year, against $95.36 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-18% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 17%FY23 -8%FY24 -64%FY25 —

It earned an average -18% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+550% shares · 5y

Share count is up 550% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002367 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002183 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035302 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002367 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002183 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035302 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002367 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002183 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035302 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002367 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002183 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035302 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002367 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002183 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035302 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-002367 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-002183 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-035302 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)