MeritValue

SILGAN HOLDINGS INC

SLGNdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SILGAN HOLDINGS INC earns about 9% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $31.63 and $38.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$5.68B1$6.41B2$5.99B3$5.85B3$6.48B3
Net income$359.1M4$340.8M5$326M6$276.4M6$288.4M6
Operating cash flow$556.8M7$748.4M8$482.6M9$721.9M9$729.8M9
Capital expenditure$232.3M10$215.8M11$226.8M12$262.8M12$307.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$324.6M7$532.7M8$255.8M9$459.1M9$422.7M9
Total debt$3.79B13$3.43B14$3.43B15$4.14B16$4.35B16
Cash & equivalents$631.4M17$585.6M18$642.9M19$822.9M20$1.08B20
Diluted shares111.2M111.0M109.2M107.1M106.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$212.98
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$27.01
Free cash flow it threw off
$39.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$407.07

10 shares is a claim on $212.98 of net worth that earned you $27.01 and generated $39.59 of cash last year, against $407.07 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
9% avg · 5y
FY21 9%FY22 9%FY23 10%FY24 8%FY25 8%

It earned about 9% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 15% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $31.63 and $38.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$38.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth3.8%
  • fcfBase$422.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$36.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth3.8%
  • fcfBase$422.7M
Earnings Power Value
$31.63
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$326M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$35.97
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years3.8%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $36.06
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.98
Base3.8%$36.06
Bull8.8%$51.75

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 3.8%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000849869-24-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000849869-25-000029 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012202 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000849869-24-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000849869-25-000029 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012202 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000849869-24-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000849869-25-000029 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012202 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000849869-24-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000849869-25-000029 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012202 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000849869-23-000019 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000849869-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000849869-25-000029 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012202 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000849869-23-000019 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000849869-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000849869-25-000029 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012202 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)