MeritValue

Solid Power, Inc.

SLDPdata completeness 88%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Solid Power, Inc. earns about -2% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 94% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.71M1$11.8M2$17.4M3$20.1M4$17.9M4
Net income$18.1M5−$9.56M6−$65.5M7−$96.5M8−$93.4M8
Operating cash flow−$25.4M9−$33.8M10−$58.3M11−$63.9M12−$73.4M12
Capital expenditure$12.6M13$58.3M14$34.5M15$15.9M16$10.2M16
Free cash flow (derived)−$38.1M9−$92.1M10−$92.8M11−$79.8M12−$83.6M12
Total debt$260,00017$14,00018———
Cash & equivalents$513.4M19$50.1M20$34.5M21$25.4M22$21.6M22
Diluted shares95.5M174.4M178.0M179.4M184.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$22.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$5.05
Free cash flow it threw off
−$4.52
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $22.48 of net worth that earned you −$5.05 and generated −$4.52 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-2% avg · 5y
FY21 41%FY22 -2%FY23 -11%FY24 -20%FY25 -19%

It earned an average -2% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+94% shares · 5y

Share count is up 94% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 95% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-026961 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001906 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001874 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019435 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-026961 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001906 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001874 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019435 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-026961 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001906 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001874 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019435 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-026961 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001906 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001874 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019435 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-026961 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001906 (LongTermDebtCurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001104659-23-026961 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001906 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-001874 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-019435 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)