MeritValue

SKYWEST INC

SKYWdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SKYWEST INC earns about 5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $28.01 and $286.78 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$2.71B1$3B2$2.94B3$3.53B3$4.06B3
Net income$111.9M4$73M5$34.3M6$323M6$428.3M6
Operating cash flow$831.8M7$480.4M8$736.3M9$692.5M9$940.4M9
Capital expenditure$18.1M10$13M11$13.3M12$44.9M12$32M12
Free cash flow (derived)$813.7M7$467.3M8$723.1M9$647.6M9$908.3M9
Total debt$3.11B13$3.38B14$3.01B15$2.67B16$2.39B16
Cash & equivalents$258.4M17$103M18$148.3M19$227.4M20$122.7M20
Diluted shares50.8M50.6M44.6M41.5M41.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$663.34
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$103.45
Free cash flow it threw off
$219.39
Debt you’d be carrying
$577.76

10 shares is a claim on $663.34 of net worth that earned you $103.45 and generated $219.39 of cash last year, against $577.76 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
5% avg · 5y
FY21 4%FY22 3%FY23 3%FY24 7%FY25 9%

It earned about 5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 23% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $28.01 and $286.78 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$286.78
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.2%
  • fcfBase$723.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$257.9
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.2%
  • fcfBase$723.1M
Earnings Power Value
$28.01
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$111.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$124.29
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $257.9
The three cases
Bear0.0%$194.71
Base5.2%$257.9
Bull10.2%$330.7

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001237 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000943 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-016358 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001237 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000943 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-016358 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001237 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000943 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-016358 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001237 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000943 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-016358 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001442 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001237 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000943 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-016358 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-001442 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001558370-24-001237 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001558370-25-000943 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001104659-26-016358 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)