MeritValue

SkyWater Technology, Inc

SKYTdata completeness 100%6 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SkyWater Technology, Inc earns about -5% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 68% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$162.8M1$212.9M2$286.7M2$342.3M3$442.1M3
Net income−$50.7M4−$39.6M5−$30.8M5−$6.79M6$118.9M6
Operating cash flow−$55.7M7−$14.3M8$10.1M8$18.5M9−$29M9
Capital expenditure$30.8M10$17.1M11$8.62M11$7.94M12$24.3M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$86.4M7−$31.4M8$1.46M8$10.5M9−$53.3M9
Total debt$118.9M13$129.9M14$102.9M15$107.2M16$262.2M16
Cash & equivalents$12.9M17$30M18$18.4M19$18.8M20$23.2M20
Diluted shares29.0M40.8M45.5M47.4M48.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$38.56
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$24.41
Free cash flow it threw off
−$10.94
Debt you’d be carrying
$53.82

10 shares is a claim on $38.56 of net worth that earned you $24.41 and generated −$10.94 of cash last year, against $53.82 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 5y
FY22 -24%FY23 -16%FY23 -8%FY24 -1%FY25 22%

It earned an average -5% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+68% shares · 5y

Share count is up 68% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 120% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.46M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
negative equity value — refusing to publish per-share figure
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.46M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
$14.55
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001819974-24-000008 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001819974-25-000010 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001819974-26-000009 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001819974-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001819974-25-000010 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001819974-26-000009 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001819974-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001819974-25-000010 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001819974-26-000009 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001819974-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001819974-25-000010 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001819974-26-000009 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001819974-23-000011 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001819974-24-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819974-25-000010 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001819974-26-000009 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001819974-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001819974-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001819974-25-000010 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001819974-26-000009 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)