MeritValue

SkyAI, Inc.

SKYAdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SkyAI, Inc. earns about -191% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 419% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue————$204,1201
Net income−$4.66M2−$4.64M3−$9.84M4−$9.3M5−$282.5M5
Operating cash flow−$3.15M6−$6.43M7−$8.51M8−$4.4M9−$11M9
Capital expenditure$2.22M10$542,66211$698,27712$138,80412—
Free cash flow (derived)−$5.37M6−$6.98M7−$9.21M8−$4.54M9—
Total debt————$3.08M13
Cash & equivalents$1.48M14$4.17M15$3.01M16$754,80217$10.4M17
Diluted shares4.9M8.1M592,3964,18825.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$104.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$111.64
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
$1.22

10 shares is a claim on $104.47 of net worth that earned you −$111.64 last year, against $1.22 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-191% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 -86%FY23 -156%FY24 -438%FY25 -83%

It earned an average -191% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+419% shares · 5y

Share count is up 419% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014261 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010295 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011959 (NetIncomeLoss)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000989 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014261 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010295 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011959 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000989 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014261 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010295 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011959 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000989 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2025-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014261 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-010295 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-011959 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-000989 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-014261 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)