MeritValue

Champion Homes, Inc.

SKYdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Champion Homes, Inc. earns about 40% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $37.95 and $58.58 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$2.21B1$2.61B2$2.02B3$2.48B3$2.66B3
Net income$248M4$401.8M5$146.7M6$198.4M6$206.9M6
Operating cash flow$224.5M7$416.2M8$222.7M9$240.9M9$303.9M9
Capital expenditure$32M10$52.2M11$52.9M12$50.5M12$34.1M12
Free cash flow (derived)$192.5M7$364M8$169.8M9$190.3M9$269.7M9
Total debt$24.9M13$12.4M14$24.7M15$49.5M16$47.6M16
Cash & equivalents$435.4M17$747.5M18$495.1M19$610.3M20$638.3M20
Diluted shares57.3M57.4M58.0M58.1M56.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$278.39
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$36.62
Free cash flow it threw off
$47.74
Debt you’d be carrying
$8.42

10 shares is a claim on $278.39 of net worth that earned you $36.62 and generated $47.74 of cash last year, against $8.42 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
40% avg · 5y
FY22 60%FY23 81%FY24 17%FY25 21%FY26 22%

It earned about 40% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 91% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $37.95 and $58.58 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$54.96
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$190.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$58.58
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$190.3M
Earnings Power Value
$37.95
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$206.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.88
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $58.58
The three cases
Bear0.0%$58.58
Base0.0%$58.58
Bull5.0%$70.23

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-02 · accession 0000950170-24-065649 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0000950170-25-077746 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001193125-26-239333 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-02 · accession 0000950170-24-065649 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0000950170-25-077746 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001193125-26-239333 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-02 · accession 0000950170-24-065649 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0000950170-25-077746 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001193125-26-239333 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-02 · accession 0000950170-24-065649 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0000950170-25-077746 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0001193125-26-239333 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-02 · accession 0000950170-23-024856 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0000950170-24-065649 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0000950170-25-077746 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-29 · accession 0001193125-26-239333 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-02 · accession 0000950170-23-024856 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-01 · accession 0000950170-24-065649 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-03-30 · accession 0000950170-25-077746 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2025-03-29 · accession 0001193125-26-239333 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)