MeritValue

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc.

SKWDdata completeness 88%5 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

Skyward Specialty Insurance Group, Inc. earns about 16% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 29% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $21.31 and $482.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.97M1$5.2M2$9.82M3$10.7M3$12.4M3
Net income$38.3M4$39.4M5$86M6$118.8M6$170M6
Operating cash flow$175.3M7$208.9M8$338.2M9$305.1M9$408.1M9
Capital expenditure$2.15M10$2.33M11$3.11M12$4.22M12$5.45M12
Free cash flow (derived)$173.1M7$206.6M8$335.1M9$300.9M9$402.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$42.1M13$45.4M14$65.9M15$121.6M16$168.5M16
Diluted shares32.5M32.7M38.3M41.4M41.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$241.48
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$40.67
Free cash flow it threw off
$96.3
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $241.48 of net worth that earned you $40.67 and generated $96.3 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
16% avg · 5y
FY21 11%FY22 12%FY23 16%FY24 19%FY25 21%

It earned about 16% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+29% shares · 5y

Share count is up 29% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $21.31 and $482.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$482.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$335.1M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$265.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$335.1M
Earnings Power Value
$21.31
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$86M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$47.02
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $265.34
The three cases
Bear0.0%$118.54
Base20.0%$265.34
Bull20.0%$265.34

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001519449-23-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001519449-25-000047 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001519449-26-000015 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001519449-23-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001519449-25-000047 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001519449-26-000015 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001519449-23-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001519449-25-000047 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001519449-26-000015 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001519449-23-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K/A · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001519449-25-000047 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001519449-26-000015 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001519449-23-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001519449-24-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001519449-25-000047 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001519449-26-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)