SkinHealth Systems Inc.
SKINdata completeness 88%7 fiscal years on fileData notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'
SkinHealth Systems Inc. earns about -68% on equity, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 33% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.06 and $4.25 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $260.1M1 | $365.9M2 | $398M3 | $334.3M3 | $300.8M3 |
| Net income | −$378.8M4 | $44.2M5 | −$100.1M6 | −$29.1M6 | −$9.52M6 |
| Operating cash flow | −$28.4M7 | −$106.6M8 | $21.8M9 | $16.1M9 | $37.5M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $11.2M10 | $10.8M11 | $3.83M12 | $756,00012 | $303,00012 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | −$39.6M7 | −$117.4M8 | $17.9M9 | $15.4M9 | $37.2M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $901.9M13 | $568.2M14 | $523M14 | $370.1M15 | $232.7M15 |
| Diluted shares | 102.1M | 148.5M | 131.7M | 142.5M | 135.8M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $4.5 of net worth that earned you −$0.7 and generated $2.74 of cash last year.
It earned about -68% on equity against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is up 33% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.06 and $4.25 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$17.9M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth5.0%
- fcfBase$17.9M
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $3.6 |
| Base | 5.0% | $4.06 |
| Bull | 10.0% | $4.6 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010638 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012407 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017376 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010638 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012407 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017376 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010638 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012407 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017376 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010638 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-012407 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017376 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001818093-23-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-010638 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-017376 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)