MeritValue

J M SMUCKER Co

SJMdata completeness 100%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

J M SMUCKER Co earns about 1% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $6.03 and $14.16 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$8B1$8.53B2$8.18B3$8.73B3$9.05B3
Net income$631.7M4−$91.3M5$744M6−$1.23B6−$138.7M6
Operating cash flow$1.14B7$1.19B8$1.23B9$1.21B9$1.47B9
Capital expenditure$417.5M10$477.4M11$586.5M12$393.8M12$317.4M12
Free cash flow (derived)$718.8M7$717M8$642.9M9$816.6M9$1.16B9
Total debt$8.8B13$8.63B14$16.1B15$14.7B16$13.5B16
Cash & equivalents$169.9M17$655.8M18$62M18$69.9M18$58.6M18
Diluted shares108.4M104.4M106.2M106.4M106.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$519.75
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$13
Free cash flow it threw off
$108.4
Debt you’d be carrying
$1,266.29

10 shares is a claim on $519.75 of net worth that earned you −$13 and generated $108.4 of cash last year, against $1,266.29 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
1% avg · 5y
FY22 4%FY23 -0%FY24 3%FY25 -4%FY26 -0%

It earned about 1% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 53% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $6.03 and $14.16 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$14.16
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.3%
  • fcfBase$816.6M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$6.03
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.3%
  • fcfBase$816.6M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.3%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $6.03
The three cases
Bear0.0%−$16.69
Base4.3%$6.03
Bull9.3%$36.98

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.3%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000091419-24-000054 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000091419-25-000056 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0000091419-26-000050 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000091419-24-000054 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000091419-25-000056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0000091419-26-000050 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000091419-24-000054 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000091419-25-000056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0000091419-26-000050 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000091419-24-000054 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000091419-25-000056 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0000091419-26-000050 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000091419-22-000049 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000091419-24-000054 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-04-30 · accession 0000091419-25-000056 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-04-30 · accession 0000091419-26-000050 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-04-30 · accession 0000091419-25-000056 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-04-30 · accession 0000091419-26-000050 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)