MeritValue

abrdn Silver ETF Trust

SIVRdata completeness 38%16 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'capex'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'incomeTaxExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

abrdn Silver ETF Trust earns about 10% on equity, but has diluted owners by 47% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The applicable estimate puts fair value near $1.08 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue—————
Net income−$143.3M1$6.28M2−$13.4M3$215.2M3$2.84B3
Operating cash flow—————
Capital expenditure—————
Free cash flow (derived)—————
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents—————
Diluted shares40.9M48.7M48.1M48.2M60.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$901.08
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$470.71
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $901.08 of net worth that earned you $470.71 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
10% avg · 5y
FY21 -14%FY22 1%FY23 -1%FY24 15%FY25 52%

It earned an average 10% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+47% shares · 5y

Share count is up 47% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 0 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
$1.08
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$6.28M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001999371-24-002930 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001839882-25-012450 (NetIncomeLoss)
  3. 10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001999371-26-004973 (NetIncomeLoss)