MeritValue

SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc.

SITEdata completeness 100%12 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SiteOne Landscape Supply, Inc. earns about 11% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $39.86 and $130.85 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.48B1$4.01B2$4.3B3$4.54B3$4.7B3
Net income$238.4M4$245.4M5$173.4M6$123.6M6$151.8M6
Operating cash flow$210.8M7$217.2M8$297.5M9$283.4M9$300.5M9
Capital expenditure$32.5M10$27.1M11$32.1M12$40.5M12$53.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$178.3M7$190.1M8$265.4M9$242.9M9$246.8M9
Total debt$510.4M13$701.2M14$745.8M15$776.4M16$770.8M16
Cash & equivalents$53.7M17$29.1M18$82.5M19$107.1M20$190.6M20
Diluted shares45.8M45.8M45.7M45.6M45.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$368.03
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$33.67
Free cash flow it threw off
$54.74
Debt you’d be carrying
$170.97

10 shares is a claim on $368.03 of net worth that earned you $33.67 and generated $54.74 of cash last year, against $170.97 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY22 17%FY23 13%FY23 9%FY24 6%FY25 8%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−2% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has risen 51% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $39.86 and $130.85 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$130.85
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.1%
  • fcfBase$246.8M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$102.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.1%
  • fcfBase$246.8M
Earnings Power Value
$39.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$173.4M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$52.83
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.1%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $102.51
The three cases
Bear0.0%$65.35
Base9.1%$102.51
Bull14.1%$128.61

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.1%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001650729-24-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001650729-25-000004 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001650729-26-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001650729-24-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001650729-25-000004 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001650729-26-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001650729-24-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001650729-25-000004 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001650729-26-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001650729-24-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001650729-25-000004 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001650729-26-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001650729-23-000003 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001650729-24-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001650729-25-000004 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001650729-26-000005 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-02 · accession 0001650729-23-000003 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-01 · accession 0001650729-24-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001650729-25-000004 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-29 · accession 0001650729-26-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)