SIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC.
SIRIdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on fileSIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 91% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $23.37 and $47.45 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $8.7B1 | $9B2 | $8.95B3 | $8.7B3 | $8.56B3 |
| Net income | $1.31B4 | $908M5 | $786M6 | −$1.67B6 | $805M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $2B7 | $1.98B8 | $1.83B9 | $1.74B9 | $1.9B9 |
| Capital expenditure | $388M10 | $426M11 | $650M12 | $728M12 | $653M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $1.61B7 | $1.56B8 | $1.18B9 | $1.01B9 | $1.25B9 |
| Total debt | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $191M13 | $362M14 | $306M15 | $162M15 | $94M15 |
| Diluted shares | 4.14B | 368.0M | 362.0M | 338.0M | 357.0M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $323.89 of net worth that earned you $22.55 and generated $34.87 of cash last year.
It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 91% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $23.37 and $47.45 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$1.18B
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$1.18B
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$805M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $47.45 |
| Base | 0.0% | $47.45 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $58.87 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000908937-24-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000908937-25-000005 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000908937-26-000006 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000908937-24-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000908937-25-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000908937-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000908937-24-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000908937-25-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000908937-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000908937-24-000008 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000908937-25-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000908937-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
- 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000908937-24-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000908937-25-000005 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
- 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000908937-26-000006 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)