MeritValue

Sionna Therapeutics, Inc.

SIONdata completeness 75%2 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'revenue'; no data for concept 'totalDebt'; no data for concept 'interestExpense'; no data for concept 'pretaxIncome'

The thesis, from the filings

Sionna Therapeutics, Inc. earns about -25% on equity, but has diluted owners by 936% over 2 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2024FY 2025
Revenue——
Net income−$61.7M1−$75.3M1
Operating cash flow−$52.8M2−$66.3M2
Capital expenditure$27,0003$377,0003
Free cash flow (derived)−$52.8M2−$66.7M2
Total debt——
Cash & equivalents$37.8M4$58.5M4
Diluted shares3.9M40.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$76.78
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$18.83
Free cash flow it threw off
−$16.68
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $76.78 of net worth that earned you −$18.83 and generated −$16.68 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-25% avg · 2y
FY24 —FY25 -25%

It earned an average -25% on equity over 2 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+936% shares · 2y

Share count is up 936% over 2 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
only 2 years of FCF (need ≥3) — model not applicable
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
only 2 years of net income (need ≥3)
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012996 (NetIncomeLoss)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012996 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012996 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012996 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)