Silicon Motion Technology CORP
SIMOdata completeness 88%16 fiscal years on fileSilicon Motion Technology CORP earns about 30% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $4.71 and $9.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.
| Figure | FY 2021 | FY 2022 | FY 2023 | FY 2024 | FY 2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $922.1M1 | $945.9M2 | $639.1M3 | $803.6M3 | $885.6M3 |
| Net income | $200M4 | $172.5M5 | $52.9M6 | $89.2M6 | $122.6M6 |
| Operating cash flow | $174.7M7 | $83.9M8 | $149.1M9 | $77.1M9 | $61.4M9 |
| Capital expenditure | $24.7M10 | $32.9M11 | $50.3M12 | $44.4M12 | $55.1M12 |
| Free cash flow (derived) | $150M7 | $51M8 | $98.8M9 | $32.7M9 | $6.3M9 |
| Total debt | — | — | $013 | — | — |
| Cash & equivalents | $360.1M14 | $232.2M15 | $314.3M16 | $276.1M17 | $201.8M17 |
| Diluted shares | 140.0M | 133.6M | 133.9M | 134.9M | 134.7M |
Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).
10 shares is a claim on $61.66 of net worth that earned you $9.1 and generated $0.47 of cash last year.
It earned about 30% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.
seeing a moat in the numbers →Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.
reading capital allocation →Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.
The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $4.71 and $9.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears10
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$32.7M
assumptions (10)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- terminalGrowth2.5%
- projectionYears5
- fcfGrowth0.0%
- fcfBase$32.7M
assumptions (8)
- riskFreeRate4.7%
- equityRiskPremium5.0%
- beta100.0%
- equityWeight85.0%
- costOfDebtSpread1.5%
- taxRate21.0%
- normalizedEarnings$122.6M
- growthAssumed0.0%
assumptions (1)
- grahamMultiplier2250.0%
Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →
| Bear | 0.0% | $4.97 |
| Base | 0.0% | $4.97 |
| Bull | 5.0% | $5.81 |
Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.
Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.
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