SILICOM LTD.

SILCdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

SILICOM LTD. earns about -5% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 18% of its shares over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $60.13 and $64.71 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$128.5M1$150.6M2$124.1M3$58.1M3$61.9M3
Net income$10.5M4$18.3M5−$26.4M6−$13.7M6−$11.5M6
Operating cash flow$1.08M7−$4.09M8$31.9M9$18.3M9−$2.16M9
Capital expenditure$2.59M10$2.09M11$1.12M12$932,00012$1.19M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.51M7−$6.18M8$30.8M9$17.4M9−$3.35M9
Total debt
Cash & equivalents$29.3M13$30.7M14$47M15$51.3M16$35.2M16
Diluted shares7.0M6.8M6.7M6.0M5.7M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$205.88
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$20.12
Free cash flow it threw off
−$5.87
Debt you’d be carrying

10 shares is a claim on $205.88 of net worth that earned you −$20.12 and generated −$5.87 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-5% avg · 5y
FY21 8%FY22 12%FY23 -21%FY24 -12%FY25 -10%

It earned about -5% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−18% shares · 5y

Share count is down 18% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $60.13 and $64.71 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$64.71
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$17.4M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$60.13
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$17.4M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $60.13
The three cases
Bear0.0%$49.61
Base5.0%$60.13
Bull10.0%$72.72

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001474 (Revenues)
  2. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001515 (Revenues)
  3. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002258 (Revenues)
  4. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001474 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001515 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002258 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001474 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001515 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002258 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001474 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001515 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002258 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 20-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001178913-23-001545 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 20-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001178913-24-001474 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 20-F · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001178913-25-001515 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 20-F · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001178913-26-002258 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)