MeritValue

SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC

SIGIdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SELECTIVE INSURANCE GROUP INC earns about 10% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, with a roughly flat share count. The estimate methods put fair value between $61.99 and $599.04 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$3.38B1$3.56B2$4.23B3$4.86B3$5.34B3
Net income$403.8M4$224.9M5$365.2M6$207M6$466.4M6
Operating cash flow$771.4M7$802.4M8$758.9M9$1.1B9$1.23B9
Capital expenditure$22.2M10$26M11$22.6M12$30.8M12$38.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$749.3M7$776.4M8$736.3M9$1.07B9$1.19B9
Total debt$506.1M13$504.7M14$503.9M15$507.9M15—
Cash & equivalents$45.1M16$25.2M17$13.3M17$63M17$18M17
Diluted shares60.7M60.9M61.0M61.3M61.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$591.07
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$76.39
Free cash flow it threw off
$195.6
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $591.07 of net worth that earned you $76.39 and generated $195.6 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
10% avg · 5y
FY21 12%FY22 8%FY23 11%FY24 6%FY25 14%

It earned about 10% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+1% shares · 5y

Share count is roughly flat over 5 years — little dilution, little buyback. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $61.99 and $599.04 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$599.04
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.6%
  • fcfBase$1.07B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$426.06
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.6%
  • fcfBase$1.07B
Earnings Power Value
$61.99
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$365.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$99.81
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.6%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $426.06
The three cases
Bear0.0%$250.46
Base12.6%$426.06
Bull17.6%$519.91

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.6%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000230557-24-000005 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000230557-25-000006 (Revenues)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000230557-26-000006 (Revenues)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000230557-24-000005 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000230557-25-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000230557-26-000006 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000230557-24-000005 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000230557-25-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000230557-26-000006 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000230557-24-000005 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000230557-25-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000230557-26-000006 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000230557-23-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000230557-24-000005 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000230557-25-000006 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000230557-25-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000230557-26-000006 (CashCashEquivalentsRestrictedCashAndRestrictedCashEquivalents)