MeritValue

SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC

SIGAdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SIGA TECHNOLOGIES INC earns about 88% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $8.54 and $15.61 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$133.7M1$110.8M2$139.9M3$138.7M3$94.6M3
Net income$69.5M4$33.9M5$68.1M6$59.2M6$23.3M6
Operating cash flow$11.5M7$41.6M8$94.8M9$48.8M9$43.5M9
Capital expenditure$50,62010$011$21,68612$42,45012$355,00912
Free cash flow (derived)$11.4M7$41.6M8$94.8M9$48.7M9$43.1M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$103.1M13$98.8M14$150.1M15$155.4M16$155M16
Diluted shares76.4M73.5M71.7M71.9M71.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$27.66
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$3.24
Free cash flow it threw off
$6
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $27.66 of net worth that earned you $3.24 and generated $6 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
88% avg · 5y
FY21 98%FY22 48%FY23 146%FY24 98%FY25 53%

It earned about 88% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $8.54 and $15.61 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$15.61
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.4%
  • fcfBase$48.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$14.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.4%
  • fcfBase$48.7M
Earnings Power Value
$8.54
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$59.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$4.46
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.4%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $14.39
The three cases
Bear0.0%$11.84
Base5.4%$14.39
Bull10.4%$17.24

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.4%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007487 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007056 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007557 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007487 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007056 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007557 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007487 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007056 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007557 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007487 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007056 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007557 (PaymentsForCapitalImprovements)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001437749-23-005241 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001437749-24-007487 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001437749-25-007056 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001437749-26-007557 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)