MeritValue

SIGNET JEWELERS LTD

SIGdata completeness 88%18 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SIGNET JEWELERS LTD earns about 88% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 34% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $93.84 and $171.43 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$7.83B1$7.84B2$7.17B3$6.7B3$6.81B3
Net income$769.9M4$376.7M5$810.4M6$61.2M6$294.4M6
Operating cash flow$1.26B7$797.9M8$546.9M9$590.9M9$678.8M9
Capital expenditure$129.6M10$138.9M11$125.5M12$153M12$153.5M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.13B7$659M8$421.4M9$437.9M9$525.3M9
Total debt$147.1M13$147.4M14$147.7M15$015—
Cash & equivalents$1.42B16$1.17B17$1.38B18$604M19$874.8M19
Diluted shares63.0M56.7M54.0M44.1M41.6M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$472.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$70.77
Free cash flow it threw off
$126.27
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $472.64 of net worth that earned you $70.77 and generated $126.27 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
88% avg · 5y
FY22 268%FY23 69%FY24 70%FY25 5%FY26 27%

It earned about 88% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−34% shares · 5y

Share count is down 34% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has fallen 100% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $93.84 and $171.43 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$160.1
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$437.9M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$171.43
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth0.0%
  • fcfBase$437.9M
Earnings Power Value
$93.84
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$376.7M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$86.77
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years0.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $171.43
The three cases
Bear0.0%$171.43
Base0.0%$171.43
Bull5.0%$207.83

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 0.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000832988-24-000083 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000832988-25-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000832988-26-000055 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000832988-24-000083 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000832988-25-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000832988-26-000055 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000832988-24-000083 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000832988-25-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000832988-26-000055 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000832988-24-000083 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000832988-25-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000832988-26-000055 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000832988-23-000032 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000832988-24-000083 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000832988-25-000018 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000832988-23-000032 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000832988-24-000083 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000832988-25-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0000832988-26-000055 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)