MeritValue

SIFCO INDUSTRIES INC

SIFdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SIFCO INDUSTRIES INC earns about -7% on invested capital, but has diluted owners by 5% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$99.6M1$83.9M2$66.1M3$79.6M4$84.8M4
Net income−$743,0005−$9.64M6−$8.69M7−$5.38M8−$729,0008
Operating cash flow$3.89M9$298,00010−$1.36M10−$2.65M11$127,00011
Capital expenditure$4.98M12$3.2M13$1.12M14$1.99M15$484,00015
Free cash flow (derived)−$1.09M9−$2.9M10−$2.48M10−$4.64M11−$357,00011
Total debt$21.2M16$19.1M17$33M18$44.1M18$7.97M19
Cash & equivalents$346,00020$1.17M21$21,00022$1.71M23$491,00023
Diluted shares5.8M5.8M5.9M6.0M6.1M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$60.92
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$1.2
Free cash flow it threw off
−$0.59
Debt you’d be carrying
$13.16

10 shares is a claim on $60.92 of net worth that earned you −$1.2 and generated −$0.59 of cash last year, against $13.16 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-7% avg · 5y
FY21 -1%FY22 -12%FY23 -11%FY24 -9%FY25 -1%

It earned an average -7% on invested capital over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+5% shares · 5y

Share count is up 5% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 62% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000090168-22-000053 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000090168-23-000083 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000090168-24-000060 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-058405 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000090168-22-000053 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000090168-23-000083 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000090168-24-000060 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-058405 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000090168-22-000053 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000090168-23-000083 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-058405 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivitiesContinuingOperations)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000090168-22-000053 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000090168-23-000083 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000090168-24-000060 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-058405 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000090168-22-000053 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000090168-23-000083 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000090168-24-000060 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2025-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-058405 (ShortTermBorrowings)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000090168-22-000053 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000090168-23-000083 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  22. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000090168-24-000060 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  23. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001628280-25-058405 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)