SIEBERT FINANCIAL CORP

SIEBdata completeness 100%16 fiscal years on file

The thesis, from the filings

SIEBERT FINANCIAL CORP earns about 8% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 29% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $1.31 and $14.65 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own

Figure	FY 2021	FY 2022	FY 2023	FY 2024	FY 2025
Revenue	$67.5M¹	$50.1M²	$33.3M³	$48.4M⁴	$57.4M⁴
Net income	$5.06M⁵	−$1.99M⁶	$7.83M⁶	$13.3M⁷	$5.12M⁷
Operating cash flow	$5.54M⁸	−$24.6M⁹	−$4.8M¹⁰	$10.1M¹¹	$10.2M¹¹
Capital expenditure	$296,000¹²	$284,000¹³	$223,000¹⁴	$223,000¹⁵	$552,000¹⁵
Free cash flow (derived)	$5.25M⁸	−$24.9M⁹	−$5.03M¹⁰	$9.83M¹¹	$9.69M¹¹
Total debt	$11.4M¹⁶	$7.05M¹⁷	$8.63M¹⁸	$8.86M¹⁹	$9.15M¹⁹
Cash & equivalents	$3.76M²⁰	$23.7M²¹	$5.74M²²	$32.6M²³	$22.4M²³
Diluted shares	31.3M	32.4M	37.1M	40.0M	40.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal

If you owned

Net assets behind them

$22.09

your share of equity

Profit it earned you last year

$1.27

Free cash flow it threw off

$2.4

Debt you’d be carrying

$2.27

10 shares is a claim on $22.09 of net worth that earned you $1.27 and generated $2.4 of cash last year, against $2.27 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?

Moat signal · return on invested capital

8% avg · 5y

FY21 9%FY22 -9%FY23 11%FY24 22%FY25 7%

It earned about 8% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →

Management signal · capital allocation

+29% shares · 5y

Share count is up 29% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has fallen 20% — deleveraging.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $1.31 and $14.65 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y

$14.65

assumptions (10)

riskFreeRate4.7%
equityRiskPremium5.0%
beta100.0%
equityWeight85.0%
costOfDebtSpread1.5%
taxRate21.0%
terminalGrowth2.5%
projectionYears10
fcfGrowth20.0%
fcfBase$9.69M

DCF · Growth Exit 5Y

$8.16

assumptions (10)

riskFreeRate4.7%
equityRiskPremium5.0%
beta100.0%
equityWeight85.0%
costOfDebtSpread1.5%
taxRate21.0%
terminalGrowth2.5%
projectionYears5
fcfGrowth20.0%
fcfBase$9.69M

Earnings Power Value

$1.31

assumptions (8)

riskFreeRate4.7%
equityRiskPremium5.0%
beta100.0%
equityWeight85.0%
costOfDebtSpread1.5%
taxRate21.0%
normalizedEarnings$5.12M
growthAssumed0.0%

Graham Number

$2.54

assumptions (1)

grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose

Is today’s price fair?

Market price See live price ↗

Type a price. The ledger answers.

Or set your own belief

FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%

Discount rate (WACC)8.93%

Terminal growth2.5%

At your growth, a share is worth $8.16

The three cases

Bear	0.0%	$3.76
Base	20.0%	$8.16
Bull	20.0%	$8.16

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts

10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024165 (Revenues)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-041746 (Revenues)
10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-026597 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-036500 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024165 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-041746 (NetIncomeLoss)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-036500 (ProfitLoss)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024165 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-041746 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-026597 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-036500 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000891092-22-001113 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-041746 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-026597 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-036500 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024165 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-041746 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-026597 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-036500 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001213900-23-024165 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001213900-24-041746 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K/A · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001213900-25-026597 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001213900-26-036500 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)