MeritValue

SI-BONE, Inc.

SIBNdata completeness 100%9 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SI-BONE, Inc. earns about -32% on equity, but has diluted owners by 30% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The cash-flow models don't apply cleanly here — the ledger says why below.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$90.2M1$106.4M2$138.9M3$167.2M3$200.9M3
Net income−$56.6M4−$61.3M5−$43.3M6−$30.9M6−$18.9M6
Operating cash flow−$39.5M7−$41.7M8−$18.7M9−$12.4M9−$675,0009
Capital expenditure$6.39M10$9.51M11$7.8M12$10.5M12$8.41M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$45.9M7−$51.2M8−$26.5M9−$22.9M9−$9.09M9
Total debt$69.9M13$70.3M14$72.1M15$70.9M16$71.1M16
Cash & equivalents$63.4M17$20.7M18$33.3M19$34.9M20$42.2M20
Diluted shares33.1M34.2M38.4M41.5M43.0M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$41.33
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$4.4
Free cash flow it threw off
−$2.12
Debt you’d be carrying
$16.56

10 shares is a claim on $41.33 of net worth that earned you −$4.4 and generated −$2.12 of cash last year, against $16.56 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
-32% avg · 5y
FY21 -42%FY22 -62%FY23 -26%FY24 -19%FY25 -11%

It earned an average -32% on equity over 5 years. Compare that to what it costs to fund the business.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+30% shares · 5y

Share count is up 30% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0
DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
not applicable
3y-median FCF non-positive — growth-exit DCF not applicable (see EPV)
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001459839-23-000020 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001459839-25-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001459839-26-000036 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001459839-23-000020 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001459839-25-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001459839-26-000036 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001459839-23-000020 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001459839-25-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001459839-26-000036 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001459839-23-000020 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001459839-25-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001459839-26-000036 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001459839-23-000020 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001459839-24-000014 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001459839-25-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001459839-26-000036 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001459839-23-000020 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001459839-24-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001459839-25-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001459839-26-000036 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)