MeritValue

SHERWIN WILLIAMS CO

SHWdata completeness 100%19 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SHERWIN WILLIAMS CO earns about 11% on invested capital, comfortably above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 6% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $98.86 and $263.99 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$19.9B1$22.1B2$23.1B3$23.1B3$23.6B3
Net income$1.86B4$2.02B5$2.39B6$2.68B6$2.57B6
Operating cash flow$2.24B7$1.92B8$3.52B9$3.15B9$3.45B9
Capital expenditure$372M10$644.5M11$888.4M12$1.07B12$797.6M12
Free cash flow (derived)$1.87B7$1.28B8$2.63B9$2.08B9$2.65B9
Total debt$18.5B13$20.2B14$19.3B15$19.1B15$20.5B15
Cash & equivalents$165.7M16$198.8M17$276.8M18$210.4M18$207.2M18
Diluted shares267.1M261.8M258.3M254.1M250.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$183.64
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$102.58
Free cash flow it threw off
$105.99
Debt you’d be carrying
$820.37

10 shares is a claim on $183.64 of net worth that earned you $102.58 and generated $105.99 of cash last year, against $820.37 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 10%FY22 10%FY23 12%FY24 13%FY25 12%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — comfortably above the cost of funding, a moderate advantage.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−6% shares · 5y

Share count is down 6% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 11% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $98.86 and $263.99 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$263.99
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth12.0%
  • fcfBase$2.63B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$168.97
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth12.0%
  • fcfBase$2.63B
Earnings Power Value
$98.86
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$2.39B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$65.11
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years12.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $168.97
The three cases
Bear0.0%$69.06
Base12.0%$168.97
Bull17.0%$224.33

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 12.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000089800-24-000033 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000089800-25-000030 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000089800-26-000008 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000089800-24-000033 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000089800-25-000030 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000089800-26-000008 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000089800-24-000033 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000089800-25-000030 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000089800-26-000008 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000089800-24-000033 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000089800-25-000030 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000089800-26-000008 (PaymentsToAcquireProductiveAssets)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000089800-24-000033 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000089800-25-000030 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000089800-26-000008 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0000089800-24-000033 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0000089800-25-000030 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0000089800-26-000008 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)