MeritValue

SHOPIFY INC.

SHOPdata completeness 88%13 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

SHOPIFY INC. earns about 11% on invested capital, barely covering its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 2% over 5 years — worth asking whether the growth reaches owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.78 and $74.17 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$4.61B1$5.6B2$7.06B2$8.88B3$11.6B3
Net income$2.91B4−$3.46B5$132M6$2.02B6$1.23B6
Operating cash flow$535.7M7−$136M8$944M9$1.62B9$2.03B9
Capital expenditure$50.8M10$50M11$39M12$19M12$26M12
Free cash flow (derived)$484.9M7−$186M8$905M9$1.6B9$2.01B9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$2.5B13$1.65B14$1.41B15$1.5B16$1.55B16
Diluted shares1.27B1.27B1.30B1.30B1.30B

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$103.25
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$9.43
Free cash flow it threw off
$15.38
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $103.25 of net worth that earned you $9.43 and generated $15.38 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
11% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 —FY23 2%FY24 20%FY25 10%

It earned about 11% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — roughly what it costs to fund the business, so the numbers show no clear edge.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+2% shares · 5y

Share count is up 2% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.78 and $74.17 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$74.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.6B
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$41.08
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$1.6B
Earnings Power Value
$9.78
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$1.23B
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$14.78
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $41.08
The three cases
Bear0.0%$18.67
Base20.0%$41.08
Bull20.0%$41.08

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001594805-23-000011 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001594805-24-000007 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001594805-26-000007 (Revenues)
  4. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001594805-23-000011 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001594805-25-000012 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001594805-26-000007 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001594805-23-000011 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001594805-25-000012 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001594805-26-000007 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001594805-23-000011 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001594805-25-000012 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001594805-26-000007 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 40-F · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001594805-23-000011 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 40-F · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001594805-24-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001594805-25-000012 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001594805-26-000007 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)