MeritValue

STEVEN MADDEN, LTD.

SHOOdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

STEVEN MADDEN, LTD. earns about 26% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 13% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $25.61 and $41.62 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.85B1$2.11B2$1.97B3$2.27B3$2.52B3
Net income$192.5M4$217.2M5$174M6$175.9M6$49M6
Operating cash flow$159.5M7$267.9M8$229.2M9$198.1M9$162.2M9
Capital expenditure$6.61M10$16.4M11$19.5M12$25.9M12$42.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$152.9M7$251.5M8$209.8M9$172.2M9$119.5M9
Total debt———$013$234.2M13
Cash & equivalents$219.5M14$274.7M15$204.6M16$189.9M17$112.4M17
Diluted shares81.6M78.1M74.6M72.0M71.2M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$121.72
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$6.89
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.79
Debt you’d be carrying
$32.9

10 shares is a claim on $121.72 of net worth that earned you $6.89 and generated $16.79 of cash last year, against $32.9 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
26% avg · 5y
FY21 32%FY22 39%FY23 29%FY24 27%FY25 4%

It earned about 26% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−13% shares · 5y

Share count is down 13% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $25.61 and $41.62 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$41.62
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth4.0%
  • fcfBase$172.2M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$39.51
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth4.0%
  • fcfBase$172.2M
Earnings Power Value
$25.61
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$175.9M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$13.14
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years4.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $39.51
The three cases
Bear0.0%$32.85
Base4.0%$39.51
Bull9.0%$49.19

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 4.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008331 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009503 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012995 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008331 (ProfitLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009503 (ProfitLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012995 (ProfitLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008331 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009503 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012995 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008331 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009503 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012995 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012995 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001628280-23-005774 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-008331 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-009503 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001628280-26-012995 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)