MeritValue

SHOE STATION GROUP INC

SHOEdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'totalDebt'

The thesis, from the filings

SHOE STATION GROUP INC earns about 22% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, and has bought back 4% of its shares over 5 years — the marks of a durable business run for its owners. The estimate methods put fair value between $27.76 and $68.34 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025FY 2026
Revenue$1.33B1$1.26B2$1.18B3$1.2B3$1.14B3
Net income$154.9M4$110.1M5$73.3M6$73.8M6$52.3M6
Operating cash flow$147.9M7$50.4M8$122.8M9$102.6M9$71.3M9
Capital expenditure$31.4M10$77.3M11$56.3M12$33.2M12$44.7M12
Free cash flow (derived)$116.5M7−$26.9M8$66.5M9$69.5M9$26.6M9
Total debt—————
Cash & equivalents$117.4M13$51.4M14$99M15$108.7M16$117.1M16
Diluted shares28.6M27.8M27.4M27.5M27.5M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$250.47
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$18.98
Free cash flow it threw off
$9.65
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $250.47 of net worth that earned you $18.98 and generated $9.65 of cash last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
22% avg · 5y
FY22 46%FY23 23%FY24 15%FY25 14%FY26 9%

It earned about 22% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−4% shares · 5y

Share count is down 4% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $27.76 and $68.34 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$68.34
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth9.2%
  • fcfBase$66.5M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$55.44
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth9.2%
  • fcfBase$66.5M
Earnings Power Value
$27.76
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$73.8M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$32.72
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years9.2%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $55.44
The three cases
Bear0.0%$38.75
Base9.2%$55.44
Bull14.2%$67.01

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 9.2%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-035337 (Revenues)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-043195 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-126279 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-035337 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-043195 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-126279 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-035337 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-043195 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-126279 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-24-035337 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-25-043195 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0001193125-26-126279 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-01-29 · accession 0000950170-23-009730 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-01-28 · accession 0000950170-24-035337 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-02-03 · accession 0000950170-25-043195 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2025-02-01 · accession 0001193125-26-126279 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)