MeritValue

SHF Holdings, Inc.

SHFSdata completeness 75%5 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SHF Holdings, Inc. earns about -54% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $12.52 and $13.39 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$7.01M1$9.48M2$17.6M3$15.2M4$7.67M4
Net income$3.29M5−$35.1M6−$17.3M7−$48.3M8−$2.16M8
Operating cash flow$2.95M9$1.7M10−$832,14411$430,47712−$3.42M12
Capital expenditure$5,92013$17,31814$208,43415——
Free cash flow (derived)$2.94M9$1.68M10−$1.04M11——
Total debt—$18.9M16$55.6M17——
Cash & equivalents$5.5M18$8.39M19$4.89M20$2.32M21$6.78M21
Diluted shares019.0M2.1M2.8M2.9M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$28.19
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
−$7.4
Free cash flow it threw off
—
Debt you’d be carrying
—

10 shares is a claim on $28.19 of net worth that earned you −$7.4 last year.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
-54% avg · 5y
FY21 141%FY22 -221%FY23 -17%FY24 —FY25 -120%

It earned about -54% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
— shares · 5y

Total debt has risen 194% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 2 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $12.52 and $13.39 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$13.39
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.68M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$12.52
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$1.68M
Earnings Power Value
not applicable
normalized (5y-median) earnings non-positive — EPV undefined
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $12.52
The three cases
Bear0.0%$10.54
Base5.0%$12.52
Bull10.0%$14.9

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012291 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012360 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-003608 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016778 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012291 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012360 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-003608 (NetIncomeLoss)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016778 (NetIncomeLoss)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012291 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012360 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-003608 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016778 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012291 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012360 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-003608 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012360 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-003608 (LongTermDebt)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001493152-23-012291 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001493152-24-012360 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001641172-25-003608 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  21. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001493152-26-016778 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)