MeritValue

SHORE BANCSHARES INC

SHBIdata completeness 100%17 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

SHORE BANCSHARES INC earns about 55% on invested capital, far above its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 155% over 5 years — a real edge showing up in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $9.67 and $82.36 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$11M1$15.3M2$18.3M3$20.9M3$20.9M3
Net income$15.4M4$31.2M5$11.2M6$43.9M6$59.5M6
Operating cash flow−$7.5M7$52.6M8$22.7M9$46.9M9$62.4M9
Capital expenditure$3.45M10$2.42M11$5.95M12$5.22M12$3.17M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$11M7$50.2M8$16.8M9$41.7M9$59.2M9
Total debt—$43.1M13$72.7M14$73.7M15$89.1M15
Cash & equivalents$583.6M16$55.5M17$372.4M18$459.9M19$355.6M19
Diluted shares13.1M19.8M26.6M33.3M33.4M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$176.57
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$17.81
Free cash flow it threw off
$17.73
Debt you’d be carrying
$26.66

10 shares is a claim on $176.57 of net worth that earned you $17.81 and generated $17.73 of cash last year, against $26.66 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
55% avg · 5y
FY21 —FY22 11%FY23 35%FY24 111%FY25 63%

It earned about 55% on invested capital, year after year, against a ~9% cost of capital — the footprint of real pricing power. Competition usually drags returns like this back down; here it hasn't.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+155% shares · 5y

Share count is up 155% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has risen 107% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $9.67 and $82.36 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$82.36
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$41.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$48.64
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$41.7M
Earnings Power Value
$9.67
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$31.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$26.59
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $48.64
The three cases
Bear0.0%$25.8
Base20.0%$48.64
Bull20.0%$48.64

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005139 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerIncludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011336 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001035092-26-000014 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005139 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011336 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001035092-26-000014 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005139 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011336 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001035092-26-000014 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005139 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011336 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001035092-26-000014 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011336 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011575 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001035092-26-000014 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-31 · accession 0001558370-23-005139 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-31 · accession 0001628280-24-011336 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-31 · accession 0001628280-25-011575 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-31 · accession 0001035092-26-000014 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)