MeritValue

Shake Shack Inc.

SHAKdata completeness 100%13 fiscal years on file
The thesis, from the filings

Shake Shack Inc. earns about 2% on invested capital, below its ~9% cost of capital, but has diluted owners by 7% over 5 years — no moat visible in the numbers. The estimate methods put fair value between $2.53 and $19.09 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$739.9M1$900.5M2$1.09B3$1.25B3$1.45B3
Net income−$4.56M4−$21.2M5$20.3M6$10.2M6$45.7M6
Operating cash flow$58.4M7$76.7M8$132.1M9$171.2M9$222.4M9
Capital expenditure$101.5M10$142.6M11$146.2M12$135.5M12$165.8M12
Free cash flow (derived)−$43.1M7−$65.8M8−$14M9$35.7M9$56.5M9
Total debt$243.5M13$244.6M14$245.6M15$246.7M16$247.7M16
Cash & equivalents$302.4M17$230.5M18$224.7M19$320.7M20$360.1M20
Diluted shares39.1M39.2M43.9M44.2M41.8M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
$125.54
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$10.93
Free cash flow it threw off
$13.5
Debt you’d be carrying
$59.2

10 shares is a claim on $125.54 of net worth that earned you $10.93 and generated $13.5 of cash last year, against $59.2 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on invested capital
2% avg · 5y
FY21 -4%FY22 -4%FY23 4%FY24 3%FY25 12%

It earned about 2% on invested capital against a ~9% cost of capital — below the cost of funding. The numbers show no moat.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
+7% shares · 5y

Share count is up 7% over 5 years — owners have been diluted. Worth asking what they got for it. Total debt has held roughly steady.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $2.53 and $19.09 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story; the Graham Number is a stricter floor, not a target.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$19.09
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$35.7M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$17.81
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth5.0%
  • fcfBase$35.7M
Earnings Power Value
$2.53
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$10.2M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
$17.55
assumptions (1)
  • grahamMultiplier2250.0%

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years5.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $17.81
The three cases
Bear0.0%$14.86
Base5.0%$17.81
Bull10.0%$21.33

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 5.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-29 · accession 0001620533-24-000023 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-28 · accession 0001620533-25-000016 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-27 · accession 0001620533-26-000018 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-29 · accession 0001620533-24-000023 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-28 · accession 0001620533-25-000016 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-27 · accession 0001620533-26-000018 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-29 · accession 0001620533-24-000023 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-28 · accession 0001620533-25-000016 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-27 · accession 0001620533-26-000018 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-29 · accession 0001620533-24-000023 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-28 · accession 0001620533-25-000016 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-27 · accession 0001620533-26-000018 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-29 · accession 0001620533-23-000015 (LongTermDebt)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-28 · accession 0001620533-24-000023 (LongTermDebt)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-27 · accession 0001620533-25-000016 (LongTermDebt)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-25 · accession 0001620533-26-000018 (LongTermDebt)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-12-29 · accession 0001620533-23-000015 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-12-28 · accession 0001620533-24-000023 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-12-27 · accession 0001620533-25-000016 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-12-25 · accession 0001620533-26-000018 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)