MeritValue

STAR GROUP, L.P.

SGUdata completeness 88%17 fiscal years on file

Data notes: no data for concept 'stockholdersEquity'; no data for concept 'epsDiluted'

The thesis, from the filings

The estimate methods put fair value between $10.67 and $164.31 a share.Whether it’s worth owning at today’s price is the last question — and yours to answer, below.

i. The business — what you’d actually own
FigureFY 2021FY 2022FY 2023FY 2024FY 2025
Revenue$1.5B1$2.01B2$1.95B3$1.77B3$1.78B3
Net income$87.7M4$35.3M5$31.9M6$35.2M6$73.5M6
Operating cash flow$68.9M7$33.9M8$123.7M9$111M9$71M9
Capital expenditure$15.1M10$18.7M11$9.01M12$10.7M12$14.9M12
Free cash flow (derived)$53.8M7$15.2M8$114.6M9$100.3M9$56M9
Total debt$228.6M13$348.4M14$295.9M15$417.6M16$376.2M16
Cash & equivalents$4.77M17$14.6M18$45.2M19$117.3M20$24.7M20
Diluted shares40.6M37.4M35.7M35.3M34.3M

Superscripts are receipts. Each links to the SEC filing the number came from (full list at the bottom).

ii. Your slice — ownership made literal
If you owned
shares
Net assets behind them
—
your share of equity
Profit it earned you last year
$21.44
Free cash flow it threw off
$16.35
Debt you’d be carrying
$109.77

10 shares of this business that earned you $21.44 and generated $16.35 of cash last year, against $109.77 of debt.

iii. Is this a good business?
Moat signal · return on equity
— avg · 5y

Not enough data in the filings for a return-on-capital reading.

seeing a moat in the numbers →
Management signal · capital allocation
−15% shares · 5y

Share count is down 15% over 5 years — management has been buying back stock, quietly handing owners a bigger slice. Total debt has risen 65% over the same window.

reading capital allocation →

Signals, not verdicts — read from the filings above. Numbers don’t prove a moat; they show its footprint. You decide.

iv. What it’s worth — engine v0.1.0

The 3 estimate methods that apply put fair value between $10.67 and $164.31 a share. They rest on different assumptions, so where they diverge is the story.

DCF · Growth Exit 10Y
$164.31
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears10
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$100.3M
DCF · Growth Exit 5Y
$85.17
assumptions (10)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • terminalGrowth2.5%
  • projectionYears5
  • fcfGrowth20.0%
  • fcfBase$100.3M
Earnings Power Value
$10.67
assumptions (8)
  • riskFreeRate4.7%
  • equityRiskPremium5.0%
  • beta100.0%
  • equityWeight85.0%
  • costOfDebtSpread1.5%
  • taxRate21.0%
  • normalizedEarnings$35.3M
  • growthAssumed0.0%
Graham Number
not applicable
diluted EPS missing or non-positive — Graham Number undefined

Different models answer different questions — which to trust when →

v. The price question — last, on purpose
Is today’s price fair?
See live price ↗
Type a price. The ledger answers.
Or set your own belief
FCF growth, next 5 years20.0%
Discount rate (WACC)8.93%
Terminal growth2.5%
At your growth, a share is worth $85.17
The three cases
Bear0.0%$31.56
Base20.0%$85.17
Bull20.0%$85.17

Bear/base/bull growth = 0% / filed history / history + 5pp. Type a price to see the return each case implies.

Default growth 20.0%= this company’s own filed history (median-to-median FCF CAGR, clamped 0–20%). Your adjustments are recorded anonymously. They become the “what do owners actually believe” dataset.

Sources — the receipts
  1. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-068567 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  2. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-133269 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  3. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-311490 (RevenueFromContractWithCustomerExcludingAssessedTax)
  4. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-068567 (NetIncomeLoss)
  5. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-133269 (NetIncomeLoss)
  6. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-311490 (NetIncomeLoss)
  7. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-068567 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  8. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-133269 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  9. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-311490 (NetCashProvidedByUsedInOperatingActivities)
  10. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-068567 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  11. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-133269 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  12. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-311490 (PaymentsToAcquirePropertyPlantAndEquipment)
  13. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-026161 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  14. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-068567 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  15. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-133269 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  16. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-311490 (LongTermDebtNoncurrent)
  17. 10-K · period ending 2021-09-30 · accession 0000950170-22-026161 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  18. 10-K · period ending 2022-09-30 · accession 0000950170-23-068567 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  19. 10-K · period ending 2023-09-30 · accession 0000950170-24-133269 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)
  20. 10-K · period ending 2024-09-30 · accession 0001193125-25-311490 (CashAndCashEquivalentsAtCarryingValue)